I remember it was early in my marriage, and that red envelope would show up in the mail.
I’d get excited about which DVDs we had coming, and we’d watch them together as newlyweds… then send them back.
Sure, I missed Blockbuster and actually going to the video store and selecting a VHS tape. But the Netflix DVDs-in-the-mail thing wasn’t so bad. I always appreciated it.
And I love seeing how Netflix is now part of some of the biggest corporate news going into 2025—acquiring not only Warner Bros., but also HBO, in a massive deal. We’re talking more than $80 billion in value.
The funny thing is, if you look back at Warner Brothers’ opinion of that DVD-in-the-mail service, they didn’t think Netflix was going to last. They made assumptions. And now here they are being bought out by the same company they thought would quickly fade out..
Assumptions and Your Trading
So I want you to think this holiday season about what assumptions you’ve maybe been making in your trading.
That doesn’t mean those assumptions had bad results.
They could have had good ones, too.
But if we keep making the same assumptions over and over, then we really need to do one of two things.
1. Either we take that assumption and make rules or guidelines around it so it officially becomes part of our system.
2. Or, if the assumptions aren’t serving us, we figure out why we were making them in the first place—and then slowly start removing them from our approach.
A Few Examples You Might Recognize
An assumption could be: if a trend is strong, it’s eventually going to turn, so I’ll just wait for the turn instead of riding the trend.
Another could be: when earnings are expected to be good, a market or a stock is going to trade higher—even though that’s not always the case.
Sure there are market tendencies and patterns, but there’s a fine line that we sometimes crossover into assumption. If you feel like something is going to happen, without an alternate scenario as a backup, you may be in “assumption” thinking territory.
As You Review Your Trading
So in your annual review of your trading—and yes, I’m implying that you should be doing one, whether now during the holiday season or into the new year—take a look at what assumptions you’ve been making.
Don’t be like Warner Brothers was with Netflix!
Pay attention to what’s going on in your trading. Optimize where needed. Delete where needed. Add where needed. And do it in a way that sets you up to move forward with more awareness as you head into 2026.
~Hima
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