For those of you who have been with me for some time, you know that I’ve been having some dental adventures here in 2026. I was scheduled to get my top and bottom braces installed yesterday, Thursday, March 19th — they’re in, and we’re off to the races.
I’m trying to have a positive attitude while I get through these first couple of days of discomfort and sensitivity. I can’t really talk much right now without a lot of pain, but I can type and I can look at charts. In fact, I find it inviting and comforting because it distracts me from the party going on in my mouth. 🙂
I slept in and decided to check in on the ES futures midday, so here’s my perspective for you as we wrap up the week and head into the last full trading week of Q1.
Looking at this weekly chart of the June 2026 contract of the E-mini S&P 500 futures, you can see that we’ve been lower since the week ending February 27th.
I think there is more potential for downside — not in one fell swoop, but maybe over the next couple of weeks.
My downside targets are:
- 6456.25, which is the old top from the week ending December 6, 2024
- 6419.00, the low from the week ending August 1st, 2025
There’s still room for this to continue working lower, even if it takes some time to get there.
As for how the futures may move toward those levels day to day, I share that in my ES Futures Outlook, which I’ll pick back up on Monday morning.
What’s Been Moving the Markets
There were a couple of big non-Iran events this week.
One was the release of the PPI inflation data on Wednesday morning that came in hotter than expected. That immediately had the talking heads suspecting that this would delay the Fed’s outlook on easing interest rates, and it turned out they were right.
Later on Wednesday, when Chair Powell gave his commentary, it had the tone of “these inflation numbers aren’t warranting that.”
Lastly, today Friday March 20 is also a “quadruple witching” event. It’s when the quarterly options on stocks and index futures (like the ES) among other instruments expire. So as literally trillions of dollars in derivatives roll off the board, this can lead to greater trading volumes and sharper intraday swings due to investors rebalancing or unwinding positions.
Mix in all that with the uncertainty from Iran, and it creates a tense environment. I get it!
A Few Things to Keep in Mind
1. Be more ready for short-term fluctuations
If you’re a swing trader and you check on your trade once a day, this might be a time to start checking in midday as well, just in case your market has moved more than expected.
If you’re a day trader or scalper, I would be more conservative with exiting your trades at targets instead of expecting long drawn-out moves. This is a faster environment, and your expectations may need to adjust with it.
2. Reframe your perspective on uncertainty
Most traders look at uncertainty as an eleven-letter word. And yes, it can create dramatic moves that sometimes make us feel like we’re getting whiplash.
But when there’s a lot up in the air, that can fuel market movement and can create more opportunities for trades.You just need to be a bit more conservative with your setups and confirmation to take advantage of the action.
So think about how you can make uncertainty a bit more of a friend to your trading, and less of a foe.
3. Get back to the basics
Of all the basics out there, price action is the biggest one.
Making sure you fully understand how each candle is being created on your chart, and how groups of them come together, will go a long way in times like this. That’s what helps you stay steady when things start moving faster. I’ll share more on that next week
We’re heading into the final full week of Q1 with ES futures trending lower on the higher timeframe and reacting quickly to new information.
That kind of movement can feel intense at times, but it also creates opportunity if you stay focused on how price is moving and adjust your expectations accordingly.
👉 PS — Trader Trainings Coming Up!
The Trader Training calendar has been updated! Here’s what’s on deck:
Ticker Request Live — free weekly trading show
📅 Tuesday, March 24th at 4:30 PM ET
First 40 Trading Club Office Hours Q&A
📅 Wednesday, March 25th at 4:30 PM ET
Monthly Group Coaching Live
📅 Wednesday, April 1st at 4:30 PM ET
Build Your Trading Plan Using Four Zones RSI!
📅 Thursday, April 2nd at 4:30 PM ET
Visit himareddy.com/events for full details and registration.
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