The market’s had a strong start today for a few reasons.
Probably the biggest one is the drop in oil prices, along with headlines suggesting that talks with Iran have been productive and that there’s an intent to make the deal. There’s also been a hold on potential U.S. strikes for a few days, which adds to that shift in tone.
And just like we’ve seen over the past few weeks, there are bound to be updates that create more short-term twists and turns. So while today’s move makes sense, it’s happening within an environment that can still shift pretty quickly.
Where Price Stands Right Now
On Friday I shared my downside targets on the weekly chart at 6456.25 and 6419.00 — they’re still represented here.
You can see that today’s gap lower came only about 30 points away from the first of those levels before we saw the bounce. And now we’ve got an Outside Day developing, where price has traded both above and below Friday’s range.
This is the thing — even with that kind of movement, it doesn’t necessarily resolve the bigger picture. It tells you there’s activity and responsiveness to news, but not that direction has fully shifted.
What Still Needs Attention on the Chart
First off, today’s bounce higher stopped right after testing resistance at 6734.25, which is the midpoint of the March 18 range. That’s a level where price can pause and briefly turn lower, and that’s exactly what it did.
Also, while the RSI Power Zones are attempting to lift higher after revisiting the Bear Support Power Zone, they still have some ground to cover before getting back toward those recent peaks near the Bear Resistance Power Zone (see 53.38 and 53.68).
And even if price is able to extend today’s recovery, there’s still that red falling trend line sitting above, around the 6800.00 level. When you put all of that together, you can see there are still a few layers overhead that can influence how this move develops.
What I’d Need to See Next
What I’d need to see to get more interested on the bullish side is a daily closing break above the March 18 high at 6814.00.
That would also put price above the red falling resistance trend line. And it would open up scope for a move back toward the March 5 high at 6953.50, which is currently just below the black falling resistance trend line.
A Simple Way to Think About This
This is one of those situations where a strong move can feel convincing in the moment, especially when it lines up with supportive headlines.
But when you step back and look at where price is in relation to resistance and where momentum is, you can see there’s still some work to do. That’s why I’d stay focused on how price behaves at these levels rather than reacting to the size of the move itself.
A Quick Note on the Bigger Picture
With everything going on — oil, geopolitics, shifting expectations — it’s not surprising to see these sharper moves.
That’s also where having your levels mapped out ahead of time becomes really helpful. Knowing what you’re looking for before the price action gets there makes it easier to respond instead of react.
That’s what I walk through in my ES Futures Outlook, including how I’m tracking these levels and thinking through the day-to-day movement as it unfolds.
We’ve had a strong reaction today, and it makes sense given the headlines behind it.
At the same time, there are still a few important levels above that need to be cleared before this turns into something more sustained. As we move through the next couple of sessions, I’d keep an eye on how price responds around those areas and take it one step at a time.
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