Happy Fed Day — December 10th, 2025.

The conference is underway, and we’ll get the rate announcement at 2:00 PM ET, followed by the press conference at 2:30 PM ET. Let’s check the yield charts before the Fed speaks, and then revisit them after.

📺 Watch the full video here:

I was on CNBC, my usual go-to for financial news, and a headline caught my eye:

“Fed risks pushing 10-year yield to danger zone for stocks if Powell & Co. are too hawkish today.”

We’re not digging into the article — it was the headline that made me think:
Today we’re looking at:

• 30-year yields ($TYX.X)
  
• 10-year yields ($TNX.X)
  
• 5-year yields ($FVX.X)
  

📌 Quick Note on Yield Charts vs. Futures Charts

TradeStation’s symbols (TYX.X, TNX.X, FVX.X) quote yields with a decimal moved one place to the right.
Example: $TYX.X reading 47.78 = actual 4.77% yield.

And while I’ll use terms like support and resistance here for simplicity, remember:
On Wall Street, we never label yield charts that way. For Trading Tribe clarity, I’ll use the language — but consider them “air-quote” levels.

Highlights

1️⃣ $TYX.X — 30-Year Yield

• Yields have been rising since October 22nd, but are now pushing back into 48.41 resistance (“air quote” resistance).
  
• RSI Power Zones momentum is sitting right at the Bear Resistance Power Zone and beginning to turn lower.
  
• There’s also forecasting resistance here for Lost Forecasting students — we’ve hit a dynamic stretch point.
  
• If yields turn down, the first confirmation would be a break below the December 5th low: 47.59.
  
• If that gives way, the next downside magnet is toward 46.36.
  

2️⃣ $TNX.X — 10-Year Yield

• Rising since October 21st, but unlike the 30-year, the 10-year hasn’t quite reached its 50% “resistance.”
  
• RSI is back at the Bear Resistance Power Zone, which has dominated this chart since May 21st.
  
• Current action is around the 42 area with a red candle forming.
  
• For a short-term move lower, I’d want to see a break beneath the matching lows from December 8th and 9th.
  
• That would open the door for a move back toward the November 25th low.
  

3️⃣ $FVX.X — 5-Year Yield

This one needs the long view first.

Long-Term (Monthly Chart)

• When you analyze something with decades of history, zoom out.
  
• FVX.X shows resistance dating back to June 2006, tested again in 2023, and we’ve since backed off.
  
• It’s a great reminder: long-term levels can influence today’s action.
  

Weekly View

• Consolidation has held between the late October 2023 and May 2023 weekly highs and lows.
  
• Recent pattern: move higher → pullback → move higher → now inside that range.
  

Short-Term Take (Ahead of the Fed + Tariffs News)

• The 5-year looks a little stronger than the 30- or 10-year.
  
• But for a move lower, I’d still want to see prices fall below the December 8th low.
  
• With the Fed announcement and the Supreme Court’s pending decision on Trump-era tariffs, intraday volatility is possible — but real confirmation comes from the daily close.
  

Retracement Perspective

• A 50% retracement back to the most recent high is farther away here compared to the 30-year.
  
• So $FVX.X isn’t pressing into resistance the way TYX.X is.
  

A Quick Note About Trend Perspective

If you ever look at a chart and think, “This looks like an uptrend… but how long might it last?”
Save the date for my special live training on December 18 at 4:30 PM ET. I’ll break down the trend perspective clearly.

Final Thoughts

We’ll see what Chair Powell says, what the statement reads, and how markets react — especially in the press conference Q&A.

And don’t forget: the Supreme Court ruling on tariffs could add another layer of volatility to bond markets.

If today’s breakdown helped you understand yield charts, technical levels, or how I compare yields with futures, give the video a Like.

~Hima