The Democrats had a decisive win in yesterday’s midterm elections, tipping the balance in the Senate and winning some key gubernatorial races here in the States. The results came in relatively quickly, so now the market has some certainty. And guess what? The market LOVES certainty!
So I want to take a look at how this is playing out in S&P 500 futures because it’s a beautiful combination of news-fueled action aligning with price action and momentum on the chart.
How E-mini S&P 500 Futures Responded to the Election
Looking at the daily chart of the December 2026 S&P 500 futures contract (ESZ26), there are a few key vertical lines I want you to keep in mind.
The yellow lines mark the most recent Federal Reserve meetings on July 29th, September 16th, and October 28th. I’ve also marked yesterday’s Election Day, November 3rd, in blue.
During the overnight session, which runs from when ES futures reopen at 6:00 p.m. Eastern into the market open at 9:30 a.m., futures fell.
But notice where they fell to!
Right to the black dashed trend line I have in place on the daily chart.
That line connects the September 22nd and September 25th highs. It served as resistance, or a price ceiling, for some time. But I kept it on the chart and made it a dashed line because I suspected it would be a useful price floor.
And it’s been very helpful on the intraday charts as well as this daily chart.
This is a good reminder that even when crazy, unexpected news and political events are unfolding, price action can still trade to and around expected levels.
An Advanced Momentum Pattern Appeared Overnight
Now, the second part of this is especially interesting.
On the 60-minute chart, which I include in my ES Futures Outlook reports, futures posted an advanced momentum pattern at the hour ending at 11:00 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday, November 3rd.
That was probably around the time the Democratic win was becoming pretty obvious (not totally sure, I already went to bed).
This is a pattern I teach in my Advanced RSI Power Zones System, and it was the earliest possible sign that we might be at a significant short-term bottom.
Accordingly, futures shot higher from their overnight lows and have continued moving up this morning, in line with the outlook I provided heading into the 9:00 a.m. hour in my Skinny on the Mini® report.
S&P 500 Futures Resistance Levels I’m Watching Next
So, what do I see ahead from here?
There are some very nearby resistance levels from the October 20th trading range that I’ll be watching over the next couple of days.
Those levels are:
- 7,750.25 — The October 20th low
- 7,784.88 — The midpoint of the October 20th range
- 7,819.50 — The October 20th high
These are all resistance levels I’ll be watching over the next couple of days.
Key Support Levels if Futures Turn Lower
Now, if today’s upward action were to get undone, the levels from the July 30th trading range, which includes a key price low, may provide support.
Those levels are:
- 7,475.63 — The midpoint of the July 30th range
- 7,386.00 — The July 30th low
I’ll continue keeping tabs on the short-term movement in my ES reports. For now, that’s the market’s response not only to the Democratic wins, but I think even more so to that feeling of certainty returning now that the election is over.
💬 P.S. — Did You Watch the Election Reaction?
Were you watching the futures markets as the election results came in last night? Or did you wake up to the movement this morning?
Drop a comment below and let me know what caught your attention!
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