Skinny on SPY: Sun Apr 21, 2024

RIGHT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE IN NEW TAB SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (TradeStation: SPY) / Sun Apr 21, 2024 / 240 MINUTE CHART

OUTLOOK

Thus far, price action in April has retraced 25% (495.76) of the Oct/Mar advance. From a weekly perspective, last week’s declines maintained the prior week’s violation of key support at 508.12 (Mar 15 low). Moving to the daily chart, the RSI Power Zones remain weak and are approaching the Bear Support Power Zone.

Looking outside of the broad stock markets, the 10 year yield stalled just shy of the Nov 13 lower swing high. The VIX volatility index backed off after piercing the midpoint of the Oct 23 daily price spike, however it remains above the Apr 18 Price Low. 

Coming back to the SPY on the 240-minute chart (shown above), the outlook is for shares to trade lower. The next downside target is 482.69. 

Recovery gains may delay, but above 500.46 would be needed to offer relief toward 506.50. Gains there would seek 510.81 initially.

SPY | KEY PRICE LEVELS

515.33 – 240-min Price High

513.07 – midpoint 240-min Price High

510.81 – low of 240-min Price High

509.08 – Fri Apr 12 Old Bottom

506.50 – Tue Apr 16 high

504.13 – Thu Apr 18 high

500.46 – intraday lower high

Resistance Above

Current price:  494.71

Support Below

493.56 – Feb 21 low

490.72 – week ending Feb 16 range

488.95 – intraday low

484.30 – old high of intraday Price Low

482.69 – intraday low

476.94 – intraday low

472.42 – intraday low

469.87 – Wed Jan 17 low

~ Background to this report ~

As many of our veteran Tribe members know, I used to write and share S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) ETF analysis once a week. I sunsetted that formal service called the Trifecta Trading Club a few months ago, sharing the last SPY report on Sat Jan 27.

Some of you have expressed that you've missed receiving that research – pretty deeply.

Therefore, I'm willing to conduct an experiment to perhaps (not promising) create something NEW that would provide that type of analytical help. My experiment began Mon Apr 15th with a report on the ES futures per my former Skinny on the Markets service. Now I've brought you a SPY report for the week ahead.

NOTE this is NOT a revival of the Trifecta Trading Club. This is an experiment for me to find a way to help traders who will value this the most in a way that I can sustain it.

Hima Reddy, CMT

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