📺 Watch the full video here:

There’s been a lot of movement across the energy and index futures markets in the back half of March. Continued developments around Iran and activity in the Strait of Hormuz have created sharp swings in crude oil futures, and those moves are also influencing equity index futures.

In this update, I walk through how I approach short-term forecasting during periods like this — focusing on price action, market timing, and momentum. Instead of projecting large multi-day moves, I prefer to look at smaller, intraday forecasts that can help guide trading decisions when markets are reacting quickly to headlines.

🔍 Highlights

1️⃣ Crude Oil Futures (CL)

Crude oil futures have been volatile since tensions escalated a couple of weeks ago. On the daily chart we’ve seen dramatic swings as headlines continue to influence price action, including a higher open today with the possibility of closing lower.

To analyze the shorter-term movement, I move down to a 15-minute timeframe. From that perspective, oil is currently showing a recovery move after coming down overnight as new developments were discussed around shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz.

Using a price and time forecast, I created a short-term projection pointing toward 97.26 by 4:30 PM Eastern. In fast-moving markets like this, forecasting works best as a directional guide rather than a precise prediction.

In the video, I walk through the chart in detail and show how I combine this type of forecast with the RSI Power Zones to evaluate whether a recovery could eventually fuel the next downside move.

2️⃣ E-Mini S&P 500 Futures (ES)

The E-mini S&P 500 futures have also been reacting to the broader geopolitical environment, with traders watching closely for how energy markets and global developments affect equity sentiment.

Earlier this morning, before the market opened, I created a short-term forecast that I shared in my Skinny on the Mini report within the ES Futures Outlook service. The projection targeted 6779.50 by 3:00 PM Eastern.

Futures rallied to 6778.25, coming just shy of the forecast target earlier than expected.

With that move largely complete, I cleared the chart to reassess the next potential direction. In the video, I explain why the ES futures may struggle to move beyond the Friday morning range from March 13, which could open the door for additional downside during the session.

Forecasting in Fast-Moving Markets

When markets become headline-driven, forecasting can still be useful — but the time horizon often needs to shrink.

Rather than trying to project moves days or weeks ahead, I focus on intraday forecasts using the same tools I rely on across markets:

• Price action
  
• Market timing
  
• Momentum
  

For day traders, this helps guide short-term entries and exits. For swing traders, it can improve the timing of entries within a broader trade idea.

If you found value in these perspectives on crude oil futures and ES futures, or in the discussion of forecasting techniques during volatile markets, make sure to watch the full video where I walk through the charts step by step and be sure to hit the Like button over on YouTube!

🍀🚨 PS — Weekly Trading Show TOMORROW 🚨🍀

Be sure to join me at Ticker Request Live for broadcast #10 on Tue Mar 17th at 4:30 PM ET! 

👉 You can register here to join me in the Zoom room: himareddy.com/tickerrequestlive

📺Or catch the livestream here: https://www.youtube.com/@himareddycmt/streams