For the past week, the market’s been yawning at the government shutdown — but it has not ignored the latest headlines: Trump’s threat of massive tariff hikes on China over rare earth disputes.
Now, rare earth metals aren’t something most people think about daily. We tend to focus on gold and silver when we think about “metals.” But these rare earths play a huge role in modern manufacturing. They’re critical for everything from electric vehicles to smartphones — and yes, even car manufacturers could face production halts if supply costs spike.
I’m not a tariffs expert, and I’m definitely not a rare earths expert. But if this situation unfolds fully, the economic impact could be significant.
S&P 500 Futures: Where We Stand Now
As I’m recording this, it’s about 46 minutes after the close on the day this news broke, Friday October 10, 2025. Of course, anything could change in the next few hours or days — a single announcement or tweet can flip things again.
Still, here’s what I’m seeing right now in the E-mini S&P 500 futures.
On the weekly chart, resistance has been sitting around the 6,800 level. I’ve been monitoring that area for what feels like months— and more closely over the past few days. It’s been a meaningful level on both my weekly and daily charts.
Here’s why it mattered:
- It lined up with a long-term forecast that had already surpassed its time target (September 10), but the cycle itself remained intact.
- It also aligned with two shorter-term forecasts based on the move higher since September 2.
So when several projected resistance zones fall into one area — in this case, 6801.25, 6803.75, and 6806.44 — you can literally see a barrier forming. I have been sharing these levels in my Skinny on the Mini ES reports with S&P Edge Pro members since Wednesday September 24th.
Testing Resistance and Finding a Catalyst
I initially thought Tuesday, October 7 would mark the significant tradeable short-term top. But that high got tested again on Wednesday — a day that still offered short-term buying opportunities. Then yesterdayThursday, October 9, price action revisited that resistance, reaching as high as 6812.25 but failing to surpass it.
At that point, I started thinking, Okay, this is no longer a great situation, but the market’s still trying to find its footing.
It seemed the longer-term cycles I’d been watching were indeed the right ones — the market was just waiting for a catalyst. And we got that on Friday with the tariff announcement.
Once that news hit, the market tumbled fast. My forecast had initially called for a move down to 6670.00, based on Tuesday’s high. But since Thursday’s high exceeded that, a new forecast emerged at 6679.75 — which the market plummeted below quickly.
From there, prices kept falling, even breaking the September 25 low, creating a very ugly day on the charts.
Chart: ESZ25 daily chart showing the October 9 high and current retracement to the 50% level at 6553.63. RSI is testing the Bull Support Power Zone.
Retracing the Latest Advance
So where are we now?
In my view, we’re currently retracing the move higher from the August 1 low. And as of my latest glance at the chart, we’ve retraced about 50% — price level 6553.63 — of that entire advance.
A 50% retracement can be an important support area, but it’s not an absolute floor. If weakness continues, the next short-term stop could be the 62.5% retracement at 6488.97.
Another key thing to note: the RSI on the daily chart is testing the Bull Support Power Zone. That could indicate that, while this correction might continue, we could also be approaching a buying opportunity in the bigger picture — similar to what we saw around August 1.
What Comes Next
We’ll have to wait and see how this all plays out over the next few hours, days, and weeks.
In the meantime, we have several coaching opportunities next week where we’ll look at the current market action together. You can find those in our Events Calendar.
And one final note — take a breath this weekend.
Events like this can feel dramatic and scary, I get it. Remember though, it can just as quickly be wiped away within the next news cycle. Keep your focus on your trading plan, stay grounded, and let’s see what unfolds next.
~Hima
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