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In our Ticker Request LIVE weekly show, I’ve lately been getting a lot of questions about commodities — specifically gold and silver-related instruments. So I thought I’d use this opportunity to do an update on that complex.
I’m going to start with the daily charts and then move down to intraday timeframes to share what I see that could already be in motion including forecasts.
🔍 Highlights
1️⃣ $XAU – PHLX Gold/Silver Sector Index
Just like individual gold and silver, XAU made a strong advance to historic levels, pulled back, and is now attempting to resume higher. It lifted out of the recent Bull Support Power Zone, which was constructive. What I really wanted to see, though, was more sustained action above the midpoint of the latest movedown.
Now I’m starting to see something that suggests further upside, and that insight is coming from forecasting. On the 60-minute chart, this particular forecast could have been identified as early as 10:00 AM. At this moment, the forecast suggests XAU could trade toward 478 by the 11:00 PM hour on February 16.
That date happens to fall on a market holiday, so exact timing always needs to be taken with perspective. But even with that caveat, the forecast provides a helpful directional guide. It acts like a potential magnet for price — something to measure progress against rather than blindly assume will happen.
2️⃣ @GC – COMEX Gold Futures
Gold futures are telling a similar story, but not an identical one. There’s recent upside action combined with a bigger-picture relationship between price and momentum that remains constructive. When I stepped down to the intraday level, I explored both the 60-minute and 15-minute charts because there’s an ideal time component built into reliable forecasts. If the timeframe is too small, the signal just isn’t that helpful.
In this case, I don’t see as clean of a forecast setup on futures as I do on XAU. That doesn’t mean the upside is off the table. As long as GC remains above the 4,950 area, I still see room for futures to resume higher, with a next upside objective around the 5,100 area. The bias remains constructive above that low, even without a perfectly clean intraday projection.
3️⃣ GLD – SPDR® Gold Shares
GLD reflects a similar larger-picture path that could continue to unfold, but right now it’s taking a bit of a pause on the intraday level. When I went into the shorter timeframe chart, I was able to draw a usable forecast.
At the moment, that forecast projects GLD up toward 490.71 by 1:00 AM on February 17. Interestingly, that timing window comes just a couple hours after the XAU forecast window. Those relationships are worth noting, especially when you’re evaluating multiple instruments tied to the same underlying theme.
Equally important is what would invalidate the forecast. This projection only holds while GLD remains above 480.06, the low from 12pm noon Eastern yesterday. Forecasts always include both the potential magnet in price and time, and the level that tells you the idea is no longer valid. You need both pieces to use them responsibly.
Why Forecasting Matters
Forecasts provide a time and price objective that you can measure against as the market unfolds. They also include a specific level that tells you when the projection no longer holds.
For example, on GLD, the projection toward 490.71 only remains valid while price stays above 480.06. If that low is taken out, the forecast would need to be reassessed using the same time and ratio techniques.
Those are the same methods I teach inside the Lost Forecasting Trading System, where we focus on how to calculate projections and how to manage them in real time as price develops.
When you evaluate related markets like XAU, GC, and GLD together, those time and price relationships become even more useful in guiding expectations and decision-making.
Whether you trade gold or not, this is a helpful example of how three related markets can move slightly differently — and how forecasting can guide your expectations without locking you into a rigid view.
If this walkthrough helped you think through price and timing a little differently, make sure to hit the Like button over on YouTube.
~ Hima
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