We are finally seeing NYMEX crude oil back above $100 a barrel for the first time since late May.
This is within the context of the war that started on February 28th. And as I shared back on August 31st, I unfortunately do not think this conflict will be resolved anytime soon.
So what I’m looking at on the oil charts now is this critical $100 level — and what’s ahead.
The Next Oil Levels I’m Watching
First of all, on the daily chart of the continuous contract, we have just pierced the May 18th high at $103.00, with today’s high posting at $103.06.
The next resistance is the April 30th high at $104.47, and then the April 7th high at $107.65.
However, I do not think they’re going to provide significant resistance. I think the markets will chop around those levels for some time.
The highest of these levels is the March 9th spike at $108.82.
What This Could Mean for Stocks
You have likely noticed, even if you’re newer to trading, that every time oil picks up — especially due to the Iran war or Strait of Hormuz matters — the broad market, like the S&P 500, trades lower.
So I suspect that there may be a little bit more short-term weakness in stocks as oil tests these key levels.
Oil, Stocks, Bonds and the Fed
Now remember, there’s also the matter of next week’s Fed meeting on Wednesday the 16th, where there’s become greater expectation of a rate hike given the comments from our hawkish new Fed chair.
So this has become more of a chess game than a simple head-on battle between any two markets.
I don’t think it’s just about oil and stocks like it has been for the past six months in the war environment. And I also don’t think it’s just about bonds versus stocks.
I think that to be a really informed trader, you’ve got to keep tabs on all three.
So I will continue to do that and share my insights with you. And of course, answer your questions about them in depth via our coaching opportunities.
Either way, it’s likely to be an interesting autumn in the markets.
Notice I chose the word autumn, not fall.
It’s too soon to tell on that front. 😉
👉 PS — Trader Trainings Coming Up!
The Trader Training calendar has been updated! Here’s what’s on deck:
● Gann Trading Patterns System LIVE Reboot → for Gann Trading Patterns members
📅 Monday Sep 14 at 4:30 PM ET, Wednesday Sep 16 at 4:30 PM ET & Thursday Sep 17 at 12pm noon ET
● First 40 Trading Club: Office Hours Q&A → for First 40 Trading Club members
📅 Monday Sep 21 at 4:30 PM ET
● First 40 Trading Club: Office Hours Q&A → for First 40 Trading Club members
📅 Wednesday Sep 30 at 4:30 PM ET
Visit himareddy.com/events for full details and registration.
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