Markets Update Monday March 11, 2024

9:45 AM Eastern: I just did my top markets weekly review going through almost 20 markets in about 20 minutes. I start with a monthly and go down to a weekly and then down to a daily chart. And then I go to intraday charts on the E-mini S&P. My findings are as follows.

The weakness in the broad market last week is likely to be short-lived. Based on my forecasting techniques I anticipate the market to find a footing this week and resume higher. This is paired with the VIX at an important ceiling on its chart, which would translate to a floor on the broad market. This also corresponds with the 10-year yield returning to a prior consolidation upper boundary after breakout higher. Looking at the other market averages like the QQQ, IWM and DIA, again there is not a lot of reason to think that a significant further decline is ahead.

Keep in mind that we do have a lot of data this week coming in like CPI, retail sales and more. And this is after last week’s jobs data which will likely keep the Fed on track to cut interest rates later this year (setting up a potential soft landing).

What’s really interesting is that I revisited some forecasts I had made in February of 2023 live in front of our Tribe, as that was the last time I went in-depth into my forecasting training. And many of those forecasts played out by the book. For the ones that didn’t, well I teach exactly how to use missed forecasts in my forecasting teachings. So even if what I’m saying now doesn’t play out exactly as expected, I know how to navigate the misses and so do traders of mine who are deploying my simple yet precise forecasting techniques.

On the E-mini S&P 500 futures specifically, this footing (bottoming) in the market could develop any time over the next week. So Monday, March 11th through Monday, March 18th and again set the stage for another leg higher.

Bigger pictures though, the SPY monthly chart shows that a key upside target at 520.54. While I was expecting it to be met in July, it is approaching quickly. Therefore if this market returns higher within the next week as expected it may not have that far to go before experiencing another pause to the uptrend.

The bottom line is if you’re a day trader, then stay with the short-term downtrends until you see the market forming a footing or a bottom, whatever it is you trade.

If you’re a swing trader, I think now is a little bit of a challenging time to take a new position because of all the economic data in play, as well as because of the charts being in this position to want to find a footing. However you can use these opportunities to manage existing positions. So if you are long and haven’t raised your stops on positions in a while that’s probably something to look at.

And if you’re taking advantage of the downside action as a swing trader, planning to hold on for a few days, be very very careful to not be caught with your pants down if bulls decide to emerge on the early side of my March 11 to March 18th window. Because if they do, and especially if this is fueled by news and data, it will probably happen very quickly with not enough time for you to regroup and protect your short position.

To see the charts that pair with the analysis above, be sure to join me LIVE tomorrow Tue Mar 12th at 4:30 PM Eastern for my workshop [UNLOCKED] My Forecasting Secrets for Consistent Profits in 2024!