Back on October 20th I wrote:
“The RSI remains in a downtrend, and although it is attempting to base out ahead of the support trendline, there's still room for it to be tested…Therefore, if GLD continues its climb into Oct 25, watch for a high to form. If GLD declines into Oct 25, ideally remaining above the $115.20 level, watch for a potentially very significant low to form.”
GLD rallied into Oct 25, and kept rallying. But it came into a timing point (yellow vertical line) during the week ending Friday Nov 4. And on Nov 2, it formed the most recent high, falling in line with my updated observation of the RSI behavior.
Looking at price, the Nov 2 high came in at 124.76, essentially holding resistance at 124.67 (Sep 16 former low) that I had pointed out.
Where do things stand now?
The recent downtrend remains intact, and RSI has room to deteriorate further.
The 50-week EMA is looking to cross back below the 100-week EMA.
The outlook is for a rebound from current levels that is likely to be capped by 118.42 (old bottom). The formation of a new lower high would suggest another round of weakness toward 106.24.
Based on updated timing observations, the next key week is the week ending Friday Feb 3 (cyan blue vertical line).
133.69 — Mar 14, 2014 high, near 134.15 (bottom of weekly price spike)
131.15 — Jul 6 high, near 131.24 (midpoint weekly price spike)
128.20 — Sep 22 high
124.76 — Nov 2 high
121.23 — Oct 31 former low, also bottom of weekly price spike
118.42 — Oct 7 former low
114.98 — Nov 22 pre-gap high
106.24 — Jan 7 former high
103.20 — Dec 16, 2015 former high
100.23 — Dec 17, 2015 low