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Over the weekend, the U.S. and Israel launched significant airstrikes on Iran, and it was reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in those strikes — a development that affects the global markets and raised uncertainty about how price action might respond once markets reopened on Monday.
Instead of reacting to headlines, I pulled up the charts on three key markets and walked through how they unfolded using the same framework I always use:
Price. Time. Momentum.
🔍 Highlights
1️⃣ ESH26 — E-mini S&P 500 Futures
Going into Friday’s close, ES had already pulled back — which aligned with what I outlined in my ES Futures Outlook report. Price was consolidating, and then the weekend events unfolded.
When futures reopened Sunday evening (6:00PM Eastern), we saw that gap lower on the 60-minute chart. What stood out immediately was that the move respected a rising trend line I’ve had marked on the daily chart for weeks. If you’ve been following my work, you already knew that orange line was there.
From there, price corrected higher briefly then resumed lower again. Earlier in the morning, I was expecting continued short-term downside simply based on the recent trend — but I always have a backup plan. In this case, the alternate scenario is what played out.
When you zoom out to the daily chart, we’re still consolidating. Even after major news, broader support remains intact and overhead resistance hasn’t been cleared. If this recovery continues, there are specific areas I’ll be monitoring closely — and I walk through exactly what I’m watching and why in the video.
2️⃣ NQH26 — E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures
The NQ followed a similar pattern. It gapped lower on Sunday, tagged its own rising trend line, recovered briefly then dropped into early Monday before surging higher again. The structure is slightly different from the ES, but the principle is the same: pre-existing levels still mattered.
On the daily chart, you can see that the Nasdaq’s consolidation is actually wider. Prior highs are still capping the range, and recent rallies haven’t broken the bigger picture. Just like with the ES, I’m watching the most recent range carefully if price continues to move higher.
In the video, I break down the exact zones I’m tracking and how I think about them — not as predictions, but as reference points so I’m prepared if price accelerates into them.
3️⃣ @CL — Crude Oil Futures
Oil reacted sharply to the news, which makes sense given concerns about supply and global shipping routes. On the 60-minute chart, we saw an immediate spike higher, a rollback, and then another recovery as the market began digesting the situation.
What’s especially interesting is what shows up on the daily chart. The spike higher reacted to a prior key level from last year — even though this weekend’s events were unexpected.
That’s important.
Even when news is dramatic, markets still respond to existing support and resistance. If oil continues to hover near current levels, I’ll be watching how it behaves relative to those prior highs — and I explain exactly what that could mean going forward inside the video.
Obviously news like this can feel scary. When something happens over the weekend and you’re walking into Monday, you’re wondering what the markets are going to do.
But notice what happened here.
Traditional technical analysis – trend lines, support and resistance – still mattered.
They just got approached a little faster.
When there’s big global news like this, I don’t try to guess headlines. I just check my charts more often. Midday. Later in the afternoon. After the close. And again when futures reopen. I’m looking to see how price reacts at levels I already identified.
If you found value in this analysis of ES, NQ, and oil — or just in the reminder that technicals still matter — be sure to hit the Like button on YouTube.
🚨 PS — Weekly Trading Show TOMORROW🚨
Be sure to join me at Ticker Request Live – Tue Mar 3rd at 4:30 PM ET!
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