It’s Tuesday, October 7th — and gold just traded up to $4000 an ounce for the first time ever. That’s way cool!!
But after surveying our Tribe back in June, I know that most of you aren’t trading commodities. So instead of spending energy on a detailed technical breakdown of gold, I want to talk about the stock market movement of the day and what’s ahead for this month of October which can generally see some market weakness.
Why You’ve Got To Monitor the S&P 500 (Even If You Don’t Trade It Directly)
My focus is on the E-mini S&P 500 futures, so what I’m about to share applies directly to that market — and also to the Micro ES futures (MES).
If you trade any other S&P 500 derivative, like SPY or if you simply watch the S&P 500 cash index, this directly relates to you too.
And honestly, even if you don’t trade those instruments at all, you should still keep an eye on the S&P 500 as it’s the leading indicator of the U.S. economy.
Forecast Met, Here’s What I See Next
Over the past several days in my S&P Edge Pro daily ES reports, I’ve been pointing out an area of resistance around 6800.00.
That resistance wasn’t based on a single number — it included two levels derived from forecast predictions.
Forecasting is a technique where you’re not only trying to figure out where the market is headed — up or down — but also when it might get there.
You can use forecasting in all kinds of environments:
- prolonged trending moves (like we’ve seen in the broader market)
- short-term setups
- even sideways ranges.
Now, when you combine forecasting with my RSI Power Zones, some really cool insights unfold. (I’ll be sharing more on that momentum indicator in my Wealth365 presentation tomorrow — hope you’ll join me LIVE for it.)
What the Chart Shows
Here’s what you’re looking at: a 60-minute chart of the E-mini S&P 500 futures.
Right into the 10:00 a.m. ET hour futures surged higher and topped at 6802.75 — right between my projected resistance band of 6801.25 to 6803.75.
That band came from a combination of a short-term forecast and a long-term forecast.
Then, as often happens after hitting a key forecast level, futures plummeted lower, trading down to 6747.25 by noon Eastern.
I’m writing this research during the final hour of the session, and I don’t expect much more movement today as the market digests this range.
My Short-Term Forecast
Let’s keep this simple.
Forecasts aren’t guarantees — they’re guidelines.
Here’s mine:
I’m on the lookout for futures to potentially trade lower, reaching 6670.25 by Friday, October 10th.
That’s what makes it a forecast — it includes both a price target and a time target.
Again, there’s no guarantee this will happen. I’ll continue providing day-to-day updates in my S&P Edge Pro ES Futures reports.
What To Watch For Next
If you’ve been waiting for a buying opportunity after all these overbought conditions in stocks, you may get your chance in the coming days.
Just remember:
- Be careful going counter-trend when the bigger picture remains up.
- Short-term trades to the downside can still offer opportunity if your setup and plan allow for it.
For me, the key level that would flip this bias is 6774.00 — that’s an “Old Bottom” on the 60-minute chart. If we see significant strength above that, the picture changes.
We’ll see how this unfolds.
If you’re already receiving my ES Futures reports, you’ll get the updates there in the S&P Edge Pro — and if not, I’ll share more details on how to access them soon.
~Hima
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