On Tue Sep 29th I shared how ES futures had been consolidating beneath a significant trend line. On Thursday, futures began to trade higher above it. Here’s what I have as a forecast for what’s ahead — and how to navigate it.
My Next ES Futures Forecast
Based on techniques I teach in my Lost Forecasting Trading System, in conjunction with my observations of the RSI Power Zones indicator, I have a forecast for ES futures to trade up to 7946.25 by Wednesday, October 7th. That would require pushing above the 7904.00 contract high that was posted on August 13th.
Keep in mind when I apply forecasting, the price aspect is a minimum upside target. So I’m not expecting futures to trade up to 7946.25 “X marks the spot” and just stop and drop. They could easily continue above that price target.
The forecast becomes a really useful guide for me as I continue watching how price behaves into that date and level.
Data Interpretation Can Affect the Path
Tomorrow we’ll also get the full meeting minutes from September’s Fed meeting. As the chart shows, Wednesday, September 16th brought the first rate hike in three years.
Those meeting minutes may reveal some more language from the Fed, especially for market participants who are trying to dissect every word from Chair Kevin Warsh for clues about what may come next.
Last week’s jobs data suggested that the labor market is not overly strong, which significantly dropped the likelihood of another October rate hike.
You can also see the green vertical line on my chart. That represents the date of the next Fed meeting on Wednesday, October 28th.
The Market Doesn’t Move in a Straight Line
I can provide a daily chart forecast like I have here today, just like I could point out the trend line last Tuesday.
But the market doesn’t move up and down in a straight line. Especially if you’re trading intraday, or if you’re using intraday action to create or manage your longer-term positions.
So that’s where you might wanna check out my ES Futures Outlook, which includes my take on the ES futures every time I sit to trade.
We’ll see what unfolds into the forecast date and time. And you can get my freshest thoughts on it in the next Skinny on the Mini® report.
📣 PS — Get Hima’s Take on the ES for just $47 per month
If you don’t have access to my ES Futures Outlook service, now’s your chance to get it for the best available pricing of just $47 per month → less than one ES point! It’s already helped traders stay on the bullish side BOTH yesterday morning and this morning, instead of fighting the bullish trend.
Already a member of the ES Futures Outlook? Awesome! You can use this opportunity to tell a fellow trader friend about it and how you’ve found it helpful. It’s been super valuable not just for scalping and day trading but swing trading these crazy markets as well.
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