You can watch the video and/or review the summary below.
S&P 500: Big Picture and Key Levels
I always start with the S&P 500 because it’s my specialty—I trade E-mini S&P 500 futures, and I publish research multiple times a week in my S&P Edge Pro service. Looking at the SPX cash index on a weekly chart, here’s what stands out:
- With ongoing tariff discussions and policy changes, we’re still not even at day 50 of the administration’s first 100 days, and the action has been intense.
- Despite all of this, we haven’t even retraced half of the move from the August 9th low.
- That low aligns with the old top from the week ending July 19th, an important level in Gann analysis.
What This Means:
📉 The market is testing key support while the RSI Power Zones are holding the Bull Support Power Zone. The weekly bar is nearly complete, so I’ll reassess next week, but this could indicate slowing downside momentum.
Zooming Into the Daily Chart:
- The August low to February 19th high shows a 50% retracement aligning with that old top.
- We broke below the January 13th range, which was maintaining the uptrend.
- A rebound next week is possible, but its strength remains uncertain.
📌 I’ll cover day-to-day movements in my ES futures reports in the S&P Edge Pro, but I expect some rebound on Monday—just not sure how much steam it’ll have.
NASDAQ: Weakness Continues
Looking at the E-mini NASDAQ 100 futures (NQ):
- Much weaker than the S&P 500, reflecting the struggles of major tech stocks.
- The next downside target aligns with the September 6th low.
📌 If there’s a recovery next week, it may be short-lived. I cover why I focus on certain price ranges in my Four Zones RSI Coverage System, which includes my RSI Power Zones indicator and monthly coaching.
🎉 Bonus Coaching Session: March 12th at 4:30 PM ET for course members! If you're a member, you'll receive an invite via your portal and recording access.
Dow Jones: Not as Weak as the Headlines Suggest
The mainstream media loves drama. But the Dow hasn’t even taken out its January low yet! Looking at recent action:
- Prior Piercing Line candlestick pattern suggests potential support.
- Compared to the S&P and NASDAQ, the Dow is in a stronger position.
📌 There’s room for a rebound here.
Small Caps: Struggling More Than Others
- E-mini Russell 2000 (RTY) shows poorer performance than the other indices.
- It has retraced over 50% of the move from October 2023, making it weaker than both the Dow and the S&P 500.
- February highs may cap any recovery.
📌 Small caps are the weakest of the group right now.
Oil: Consolidating Near Key Levels
- Monthly chart shows continued consolidation near $60 per barrel.
- Potential downward pressure based on the administration’s energy policies.
- Near-term support around the September 10th range.
📌 Not bullish, but I wouldn’t stay short for too long either.
Bitcoin: A New Path Higher?
- Recently touched 50% retracement, then bounced up.
- RSI Power Zones dipped into Bear Support, similar to the last big move up.
- Trendlines show potential breakout zones.
📌 While it may not rocket higher immediately, this could mark the start of a new leg up.
Amazon: Forecast Hits Target, Now What?
- A February 5th forecast called for $192.93 by March 5th—it hit the target just two days late.
- Now that the target is met, traders must evaluate: Is the downtrend over? Will it turn higher?
📌 Getting above $209.98 is key to resuming an uptrend.
Nvidia: Forecast Playing Out
- February 26th forecast targeted $103 by March 13th.
- As long as price remains below the March 5th high, this forecast is still in play.
- If we get a strong recovery, a new forecast may be needed to refine.
📌 So far, this forecast is unfolding as expected. I used the methods from my Lost Forecasting Trading System.
Dollar Index: Breaking Down?
- First week of March = significant weakness.
- October 4th range is the next major support.
- Election week 2024 levels are critical to watch.
- If price breaks 103.37, further downside could follow.
- If it holds, we may see a relief rally toward 106.
📌 Watch for either a breakdown or a relief bounce.
If you enjoy these quick market breakdowns, let me know!
📅 Upcoming Event: Bonus Monthly Group Coaching on March 12th. See the full event calendar at himareddy.com/events!
Have a great weekend!
~Hima
PS And if you found value in this lesson, would love for you to leave a note on my YouTube channel or here on this blog post!
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