📺 Watch the full video here:
GDP grew at a 4.3% pace in the third quarter of 2025 — the strongest growth we’ve seen in the last two years! And that strength has carried into equity markets as we move through the final trading days of December. As holiday trading conditions set in and participation lightens,I’m walking through the major index futures using forecasts as projections, not guarantees, and — just as importantly — highlighting the specific levels that would invalidate those projections.
🔍 Highlights
1️⃣ E-mini S&P 500 Futures (ESH26):
S&P 500 futures pushed higher after the market digested the GDP data, which aligned with my expectation for a brief early pullback followed by continued strength. Price remains capped by the December 11 and October 30 highs, but the broader structure still supports higher prices into early January. Based on my forecasting methods, the projection points toward 7176.50 by January 6. Per the techniques I teach in the Lost Forecasting Trading System, if price trades below the December 18 low, this forecast would no longer be valid and would need to be reassessed.
2️⃣ Nasdaq Futures (NQH26):
Nasdaq futures remain on track toward their early January projection, though they have lagged the S&P 500 in both speed and momentum. After a deeper mid-month retracement, price has resumed higher but continues to face resistance from a multi-top zone formed between December 5 and December 11. The current forecast targets 26,854.25 by January 5, acting as a potential “magnet” on price action during holiday trading. A break below the December 17 low would invalidate this outlook and shift expectations.
3️⃣ Dow Futures (YMH26):
Dow futures have been the relative leader, already pushing to new highs while the other indexes work through resistance. Recent consolidation has formed a platform that supports continued upside into the first full week of January. The forecast projection points toward 51,271 by January 9, reflecting the Dow’s stronger structure and momentum. If price trades below the December 19 low, this forecast would need to be reevaluated.
Forecasts are valuable because they guide by when a market may reach a projected resistance or support level. But they are not guaranteed to work.. Knowing both the potential path forward and the levels that break that path is what keeps your analysis valuable, especially during thinner holiday markets.
I’m taking a short holiday break from these longer analysis videos, but I’ll continue sharing new trading topic short videos over the holiday season!
~Hima
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