You can watch the video and/or review the summary below.
The big question on everyone's mind: How much more pain is left? It's Monday, March 10th, and the markets continue to decline. Last Friday, March 7th, I put out a video expecting an intraday recovery, but it never happened—we fell even further.
Thankfully, I used my Objective Trend Assessment Tool, a core part of my Lost Forecasting Trading System, to stay on the bearish side of the market. If you have my system, check out Session 2 and apply this tool to assess trends accurately.
Now, let’s break down what’s happening in the major markets and where price may be heading next.
S&P 500: More Downside Ahead?
The SPX has retraced 50% of its move off the August 5th low. The next target is the 62.5% retracement level, around 5505, over the next several days. A trendline from the April 22nd low to August 5th aligns with this level.
Given these factors, more downside is expected toward 5505 in the coming days.
For members, I will cover this further in the bonus Monthly Group Coaching session on Wednesday.
NASDAQ 100 Futures: Short-Term Support, But Not for Long
The E-mini NASDAQ 100 futures (NQ) retraced well over 50% and is now testing support at the September 6th range. However, the next downside target is 19,085.
Even though the RSI Power Zones indicate oversold conditions, that does not mean the market is ready to turn higher. It only means downward momentum is slowing.
Traders can use the Objective Trend Assessment Tool from the Lost Forecasting system to track whether a bounce occurs sooner than expected.
Dow Jones: Forecasting in Action
The DIA ETF broke below the January 13th low, confirming continued weakness. Looking at the YM (Micro Dow Futures), a forecast made on February 3rd projected a decline to 41,552 by March 10th.
The actual low today was 41,666—just about 100 points off a forecast made over a month ago. This highlights the effectiveness of the Simplest Forecasting Tool, which is covered in Session 1 of my Lost Forecasting System.
Russell 2000 Futures: Small Caps Show More Weakness
RTY (E-mini Russell 2000 Futures) has been hit harder than the other indices. It has already retraced over 50% from the October 23rd low and is now heading toward the April 19th week low. If further downside continues, price could reach the October 27th range.
A forecast made on January 23rd projected RTY to reach 2005 by March 24th. Today, it reached 2003.80.
Forecasting provides a structured way to assess price movements, rather than reacting to market moves as they happen.
Key Takeaways and Next Steps
Subscribers to my S&P Edge Pro analysis and SPY report saw my warning on Sunday: If the market was going to recover, it needed to clear a certain resistance level. That did not happen today, reinforcing the short-side bias.
We’ll see if the market finds relief soon or if further downside is in store. Stay tuned!
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