God Bless America: Market Insights Heading into Mon Jul 15th, 2024

Sun Jul 14, 2024

Dear reader,

Whether you are a fellow American or not, or you are Republican or Democrat or neither, the events of this weekend have been unsettling to say the least. Former US President Trump was fired at, one rally attendee lost their life, and two others are critically injured. Not to mention the impact this has on everyone else involved from law enforcement to loved ones to the many other rally participants and beyond.

I found out about the shooting while scrolling through Facebook – yes, I use it, I don’t just advertise on it – Saturday evening before settling into the couch to watch a movie with my husband. I couldn’t believe it and we switched on the news and took in many channels for about 90 minutes. Then I needed a break – I can only handle so much news, especially on negative topics – and took a sleep aid so that I could get a decent night’s rest. It was all just so distressing, that this happened here and now in our great country.

When I woke up today, I headed to the charts. I did my detailed analysis of the S&P 500 SPDR ETF (ticker SPY) including a video walkthrough of everything I’m seeing on the charts given the new upside territory. In part, this was because I suspected that the markets’ reaction on Monday might be bullish because well this incident happening to Trump may tilt some votes in his favor that had been undecided. And that if Trump were to win the election, given his economic policies of the past, this may provide favorable tax conditions for large corporations, feeding earnings growth and reinvestment, and therefore fueling bullish stock markets.

NOTE To be clear, it’s WAY too early to know the full impact of this historic event, I’m just sharing my short-term suspicions. As usual my detailed thoughts on where the markets might be headed the next day or two (namely SPY and ES) are in the new S&P Edge Pro service.

What I will say is this – given this weekend’s events, on top of this already being an election race between two past US presidents, it adds even more likely twists and turns to the economic events unfolding this year. I’m not going to get into macroeconomic details – that stuff frankly puts me to bed in large doses – but as a fellow trader I’ll warn that you have GOT TO keep your ear to news events and keep your eyes on your charts. This doesn’t mean having the TV on all day, or staring at your charts even when you aren’t trading. It means establishing a regular flow of checking in, whatever that is for you, and then maybe tweaking it.

Here’s what I’ll be doing:

1. Normally for trading ES futures I only check current margin requirements at TradeStation (my brokerage) and the CME website in the mornings. But at least for the next month at least I will ALSO check margin requirements in the evening when I do my ES charts prep. I did this tonight and saw that requirements on the ES had popped higher since I last traded on Thu, it’s now at $12,400 per contract. I have enough account size to cover that for the 2 lot I trade, but you may not, so please check your accounts as needed before proceeding. Related links: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/equities/sp/e-mini-sandp500.margins.htmlhttps://www.tradestation.com/pricing/futures-margin-requirements/
2. I’ll likely get to my charts a bit earlier than usual this week in the mornings. Normally I need to start by 9:08 AM Eastern latest to have enough time to prep the way I like (after writing and sending out my ES research to subscribers), but now I’m going to aim for 9:00 AM Eastern to start my own review which means getting the Skinny ES report out by 8:55 AM ET.
3. When I finish my trading sessions I create a video recap which includes the 60-min, 3-min, and 15-sec charts as applies. But now I’m going to take a few extra minutes to also capture how the action played out on the 3-minute chart in an annotated chart. The 60-minute chart that I use for the ES is still my main analysis go to but taking the extra step to look at the 3-minute chart extra closely (it’s my trading time frame) post market close (not just first thing with the open) will likely help me better find opportunities and avoid pitfalls.

No matter what, I hope that in time we wake up not only to markets providing opportunities to pull profits despite the volatility, but a calming of the American mood and a move toward the middle by folks on both sides of the aisle. I truly love this country and I’m proud to be born and raised here. Of course I embrace my Indian roots, but as I joke with my husband, if aliens invaded this planet and I had to pick a national team to fight on, it would be USA all the way.

Good luck out there, in the markets, and in the world. And I’ll be here with you along the way.

~ Hima