Skinny on SPY: Sat Apr 27, 2024

RIGHT CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE IN NEW TAB SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (TradeStation: SPY) / Sat Apr 27, 2024 / 240 MINUTE CHART

PRIOR COMMENTARY

On Sun Apr 21 (gray vertical line marks 4:00 PM ET prior Friday), I wrote:

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Thus far, price action in April has retraced 25% (495.76) of the Oct/Mar advance. From a weekly perspective, last week’s declines maintained the prior week’s violation of key support at 508.12 (Mar 15 low). Moving to the daily chart, the RSI Power Zones remain weak and are approaching the Bear Support Power Zone.

Looking outside of the broad stock markets, the 10 year yield stalled just shy of the Nov 13 lower swing high. The VIX volatility index backed off after piercing the midpoint of the Oct 23 daily price spike, however it remains above the Apr 18 Price Low. 

Coming back to the SPY on the 240-minute chart (shown above), the outlook is for shares to trade lower. The next downside target is 482.69. 

Recovery gains may delay, but above 500.46 would be needed to offer relief toward 506.50. Gains there would seek 510.81 initially.

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RECAP

Shares traded higher above 500.46 into Mon’s regular session close. They continued higher thru Wed piercing 506.50. 

After correcting lower to 497.49, shared resumed higher once again. This occurred with 240-min RSI holding the Bull Support Power Zone. 

OUTLOOK

Last week’s recovery higher from 493.86, near 25% (495.76) of the Oct/Mar advance, remains intact.

The outlook is for further upside into the 510.81 – 513.07 zone by Tue Apr 30. Note this is one day prior to the next FOMC announcement on Wed May 1. For perspective on the week, I’ve marked 4:00 PM Eastern Fri May 3 with a yellow vertical line. 

Bears may attempt to resume into May 1, however if this occurs I would like to see it with 515.33 resistance staying intact, as well as the daily RSI Power Zones remaining beneath the Bear Resistance Power Zone.

If there is no further short-term upside as the week begins and shares trade lower from current levels, below 505.70 would risk 500.41 initially. 

SPY | KEY PRICE LEVELS

526.01 – intraday high

523.87 – Thu Apr 4 high

521.35 – intraday high

519.48 – Thu Apr 11 high

517.11 – midpoint 240-min Price High

515.33 – 240-min Price High

513.07 – midpoint 240-min Price High

510.81 – low of 240-min Price High

Resistance Above

Current price:  508.59

Support Below

505.70 – intraday higher low

503.32 – old high of 240 min Price Low

500.41 – midpoint 240 min Price Low

497.49 – Thu Apr 25 low

493.86 – Fri Apr 19 low

493.56 – Feb 21 low

490.72 – week ending Feb 16 range

488.95 – intraday low

484.30 – old high of intraday Price Low

482.69 – intraday low

~ Background to this report ~

As many of our veteran Tribe members know, I used to write and share S&P 500 SPDR (SPY) ETF analysis once a week. I sunsetted that formal service called the Trifecta Trading Club a few months ago, sharing the last official SPY report on Sat Jan 27.

Some of you have expressed that you’ve missed receiving that research – pretty deeply.

So on Sun Apr 21st I shared a SPY report for all (you can click back to it from Blog in the menu above). It was the start of my “mad scientist” experiments with bringing back that research in a NEW service.

The experiment is coming to an end, so if you’d like to be the FIRST to know about this new service – doors will be opening soon – be sure to comment below!

Hima Reddy, CMT

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