When you live in Texas and summer hits, a lot of folks will encourage you to “stay cool”. Instead, I'm embracing the heat. When I'm at the gym and in a small stretch room, I turn off the fans. I enjoy afternoons on my covered porch with pond and greenery views (see image), letting the warm air swirl around me. No cold drink in hand, I simply sit back and listen to birds chirping and plants rustling in the gentle breeze.
I mention this because we are just 100 days away from Election Day here in the US. It's wild to think about when you look at all that has taken place the past few weeks. And I want to look at it as something else to embrace.
Not 100 days of volatility, but 100 days of opportunity.
#1 The July FOMC meeting is Wednesday. The expectation is that the Fed will not cut rates now. I'm curious to see what their statement may reveal about how they are continuing to assess economic data. Because the real matter is whether they'll start cutting rates in September.
Changes in interest rates affect all financial markets, so I'm going to return to my own study on a more regular basis of the 10-year US Treasury yield.
#2 When it comes to this election, the general priority for traders is how the result will hit the wallet via economic changes. It's important here to realize the economy is not one-dimensional. There's gradients of folks who are doing well in this environment. But there's a lot who are not. Say a young growing family looking to buy a home. Or folks who depend on hourly wages to make ends meet. Or those in low-income neighborhoods where inflation at the grocery store remains a daily struggle.
So I'll continue to keep close tabs on the economic calendar, starting with July jobs data releasing on Fri Aug 2. I'll also pay attention to what the candidates say that may affect inflation , jobs and more.
#3 I am restudying and revisiting my own forecasting techniques education. I time this weekend restudying Advanced Lost Forecasting. I re-watched EVERY single video, from the chart setup orientation through the four sessions. I brushed up on some advanced applications that I used to deploy more regularly, and now will make the time to apply again.
So that's what's in motion over here. I am very curious to see what unfolds on the Democratic ticket. At this point, Kamala Harris likely securing her nomination, and then seeing who she selects for VP.
I'm very curious to see how Trump and his team continue to address this new angle in terms of who their opponent is, and the battle has changed. It's not about age anymore, so other topics can bubble up.
And overall, I'm curious to see how August markets behave, because again, there's this idea that it's the summer, everything's super quiet, and there's not a lot of opportunities.
But I think that that scenario does not apply this year, and that's why I'm saying you could say 100 days to election, you could say 100 days of volatility, but I'm leaving it as 100 days of opportunity, which will likely extend beyond, and I want to make the most of it!
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